by Steven Masur
Introduction
We are often asked what is happening in mobile content. Here’s what’s happening right now. Since the beginning, content developed
for mobile phones has been a game of low bandwidth and slow processing
speeds. Like a painter who is
tasked with creating art on a very small canvas with only one color, mobile
content developers did as much as they could with the resources at their
disposal. First there was “Snake,”
the game on Nokia phones in which you would direct a tiny line around the
screen until it hit a wall, or itself.
Then at the turn of the century, monophonic ringtones exploded onto the
scene with tinny reproductions of popular songs, whistles, crickets, farts and
anything else that sounded halfway decent using only the tones that could be made
by your mobile phone keypad. A
number of people got rich and the world took notice. Development proceeded apace as new technologies,
better devices and faster networks rolled out. With each incremental improvement, developers would create
incrementally better mobile phone content.
Fast forward to now.
The game of low bandwidth and slow processing speeds is
ending very, very quickly. High
speed networks and mobile broadband are becoming increasingly ubiquitous. Handsets like the iPhone, the Nokia N
Series, RIM’s new Blackberries, the new Symbian phones and the phones from Asia
which most of us haven’t even seen, which for years have delivered fully
duplexing video conferencing, streaming music, over the air downloads, and
fully integrated mobile transactions, are starting to take over the world. Also, we are seeing more convergences
with gaming devices like Sony’s PSP, and with the new slew of mini notebook
computers that sell for between $200 and $500 and do nearly everything your
$2500 laptop does.
So theoretically, you will soon be able to do anything on
your mobile device you can do on your computer…. Stop.
Aren’t you bored with hearing this sort of corporate futurist
nonsense? It’s like saying that
just because it is possible, you will use your vacuum cleaner to order popcorn
and your power drill to mow the lawn.
It doesn’t really help you.
OK, so where are the new opportunities?
Communicating and Sharing
Mobile is about communicating and sharing. That’s what people use their mobile phones
to do now, and these are the services that people will pick up and use when
they are rolled out.
Furthermore,
Sharing = Social Networking
Already the online social networking applications like Facebook,
MySpace and Twitter have moved onto mobile platforms and users are adopting
them like wildfire. This trend
should continue and accelerate. As
these platforms become more robust, speed increases and new technologies ship
with mobile phones, we will see new mobile social networking applications proliferate. Watch what is done with GPS technology,
Bluetooth, accelerometers, built-in cameras and video, and just plain old fast
processing and high speed networks.
Any service that is easy to use and enhance people’s ability to share in
a fundamental way stands to do well. What’s even better is that this stuff can make money.
Referencing
People want the information they need, when they need
it. With easy access to the internet,
mobile devices can deliver on this promise. Applications that assist this can make money in a wide
variety of ways.
Directions and mapping technologies, airline flight information, train,
underground and bus schedules and information, banking, customer account
information, names and numbers, even trivia information.
Media Delivery
That people want to access their music, books and movies
wherever they are goes without saying.
The demand for good media services is there. Now the handset technology and high speed networks are
also there. These services just
need to be refined and made better and cheaper.
The media service has to work well, provide a measure of
surety that users will not lose access to their content be incredibly
convenient and be affordable. Once
there is a service that delivers these things at a price that customers see as
reasonable, more people will use it.
The value provided will compete well with free, and it won’t need to
feel free. The illegitimate
services will always be there, but they will no longer be the primary way many
people get music or other media.
Games
The mobile games business is growing. Just read the newspaper, or look at
people in waiting rooms and ques everywhere, or look at your kids. The dedicated game devices have
been compelling for a long time and are even more compelling now. Now that the regular mobile phone
platforms support better games, more people will play games on their mobile
phones. Watch this area both for
general growth and for big out of nowhere hits.
Problems
I have outlined above some major growth areas in mobile,
here are some of the problems.
Confusion
iPhone, Blackberry, PSP, nano, Archos, Sansa, Napster,
Rapsody, iTunes, Comes with Music, Get it Now! With a plethora of expensive and functionally overlapping
devices and new media services with various kinds of payment plans on the
market, it is easy to get confused.
Just attracting prospective users to change their habits and adopt new
services is difficult enough.
Difficulty differentiating between a wide variety of overlapping devices
and services with different payment structures could lead users to freeze and
wait until there is a clearer differentiation of value, especially in a down
economy.
Burn ‘em
Mobile subscribers who get gouged by their data plan one
month can limit it, or turn it off the next month. Ultimately they just need the phone for talking. Also, if you think file sharing hurt
the music business, just wait until you see a highly motivated and widespread
workforce of hackers create alternatives for mobile subscribers who have been
burned by carriers gouging them on their data service plans.
Churn ‘em
Once they’ve been burned, or a different service offers a
better value proposition, mobile subscribers can “churn”, or move to different
carriers, or off the carrier completely if there is an opportunity. There are already wifi and skype
phones on the market, and you will see much more choice in this category, along
with a lot of innovation.
Services that are not Compelling Enough, or that Break
If a service does not provide the functionality users want,
or it stops working, or crashes their phone, you have lost them, and they don’t
come back. Just watch the adoption
curve on the typical iPhone AppStore application. Users pick it up, try it once, than never touch it
again. It becomes more
digital detritus sitting on their iPhone menu pages. It’s great that these apps are easy to make and launch, because
a lot of cool stuff is being developed.
But this also means there will be much more garbage for users to sort
through in order to get what they like, and for you entrepreneurs, it just
means higher marketing and promotion costs to make your App stand out among the
crowd.
Financing
Well, there is none.
That’s the problem. If you
can’t make it for free or cheap, you probably won’t get it made.
Difficult to get Content
Simply stated, if your service relies on content from
others, especially major music labels or film studios, then it’s going to take
you a long time to launch a new service.
The majors are still suspicious of new services, and they feel they have
been burned and wasted a lot of time on licensing content to services that
never really get off the ground.
They are getting better at licensing out content more quickly to be
sure, but for the typical entrepreneur, it is still very expensive and time
consuming, so I state it as a problem.
The Carriers
are Still the Gatekeepers
You still have to go through the carriers to get to the
customers. Having to pay mobile
carriers some part of your revenue in order to even address your customers is
not a great place to be. This is
changing with an increasing number of internet connected phones, but only a few
services, for example Twitter, have worked through this problem so far, so it
is still very real.
Platform Squeeze
Take the last two problems above and mash them
together. If you are a
service that relies on licensed content AND you need the carriers in order to
launch, then you risk being squeezed out of your own business after it becomes
successful. Witness ringtones. Whereas previously there were a
plethora of companies providing ringtones and wallpapers, it became easy for
the carriers to do deals directly with the major labels, who sourced the most
popular ringtones. The middlemen
were squeezed out.
Opportunities for the Future
Of course, there are more problems, but it is more
interesting to end where the opportunities are. The brilliance of the iPhone is its simplicity. It delivers complicated services
in the simple way. Everyone should
follow this example. But
having blazed the trail, Apple is limited by the compromises it had to make
along the way. Ask yourself
why you have to sideload and can’t download music directly, or why there is no
media card port on your iPod Touch.
Why are tracks still 99 cents on iTunes? Is that really the market price, or did Jobs just make that
up in order to get the label deals done? Where is the competition in all of these
categories?
The solutions to these, and all the problems stated above
are where the big opportunities are.
And never forget that historically, the biggest companies are founded in
down economies. I don’t have to
reach too far into the past to identify Google as one of these, and you could
do a lot worse than them and still be completely OK.